A look at South Africa’s dam levels, with an eye to the future.

We all need data to make accurate decisions – as opposed to decisions made with one’s gut – but it’s often hard to obtain meaningful data to make such decisions. Although data, in general, is becoming increasingly prolific, we need skills, tools and techniques to get the most out of the data that is around us.

A very topical issue for all South Africans is the levels of our dams. The Western Cape, along with several other provinces, endured an extremely bleak drought recently. This begs the question – given global-warming, climate change, the shifting of populations, and so on – will each province have the water needed to sustain “normal” living in the future?

Considering what we can and cannot control

To accurately answer this question, we must better understand the root causes that determine a particular outcome. Then we must consider which of these “drivers” we can control, and we must then take action. No doubt, we must also understand the impact of the drivers that we cannot control.

When considering the level of our dams, we certainly can’t control the amount of rain we receive, nor where it falls, but we can control:
–  The amount of water we consume;
–  Wastage/leakage, and;
–  Long-term-planning in terms of location of dams and the size of these dams.

Of course, we need to take budgetary, geographical, and social constraints into account. However, none of these things should stop us from being proactive or taking action.

Long term solutions

The solution to a city’s or a Province’s water problem (or South Africa’s as a whole), will not be solved in the short term.

Consider the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. It was conceptualised in the 1950s, and Phase 1 was only completed in 1998. This project effectively transfers water from Lesotho’s Katse Dam, via underground pipes over 40km in length, to a catchment area near Bethlehem which then feeds the Wilge River which in turn feeds the Vaal Dam. This project is nothing short of amazing!

We should be taking action and investigating additional long-term solutions to the current situation.

Current situation

Using data which is freely available from the Department of Water and Sanitation weekly, we at Seidor Africa have been recording the dam levels since March of 2017. The data we record from the Department’s website looks like this:

Take a look at the image below which depicts the state of dams in Western Cape as of the 14th of October 2019. It’s clear that the Western Cape is much better off than it was two years ago during the peak of the drought. Note that this is at the end of their winter rainfall season.

Now take a look at the image below. By adding an extra dimension (the size of the dam (the Y-axis)), it is abundantly clear that the Western Cape does not have enough large dams. 

Compare its largest dam, Theewaterskloof, which measures under 480 million cubes versus the larger dams of the Free State which measure more than 2,500 million cubes (Gariep 5,600 million cubes, Vanderkloof 3,100 million cubes and the Vaal and Sterkfontein both at 2,600 million cubes).

No matter how substantial its winter rainfall has been, the Western Cape needs to be able to store more water to avoid repeated water restrictions.

Create meaningful insights

The key take-away from this is that you need skills and tools to convert the underlying raw data (weekly snapshots) into meaningful insights.

Seidor Africa has both the necessary skills and tools to create these meaningful visualisations. Analysts, using tools like Microsoft’s Power BI, combine data from multiple sources (for example, dam levels, rainfall stats, water-consumption averages, and so on) to form a complete picture of the situation at hand.

As an example, take a look at the image below. It displays just under three years worth of data, by province, showing our large and medium dams and how the levels have changed over time. Far more insightful observations can be made by looking for just the crucial stats (i.e. decent-sized dams).

Action needs to be taken

Until decision-makers can visualize data in a meaningful way, it remains that much harder to see the problem. As a result, corrective measures are likely not taken, or not taken soon enough.

The key is that we need to take action. We need to curb leakage and wastage, we need to consider alternative water sources, we need to construct new dams or enlarge existing dams, and we need to change our usage habits.

Seidor Africa specialises in data and analytical solutions.
We’ll provide you with interactive visualisations which will enable you to make sense of what drives your business.